segunda-feira, fevereiro 13, 2006

Learning to Deal with Variance

The more I multi-table the more I believe in the numbers and in variance. I realize I have been playing correctly and so far it has shown. I know I treat every 6 tables a session and when I don't do well I get a bit upset. However, I know I can't win everyone of them and I know I will run into some "bad luck" once in a while. Today I had a situation where I played 6 sngs and in 4 of them I ran into AA. I had KQ short-stacked, TT big stack, QQ avg stack and another hand. That's just how it is. I also had hands such as 99 vs 77 lose, as well as AA vs KK lose. Does it upset me? Sure, but it's part of the game. AA is not invincible and the more I play the more I feel comfortable taking some beats.

Now let's get to the numbers. Even after all of this I still manage to make a profit.

SundayTotal
#Tourney36126
ITM1652
ITM%44.4441.27
ROI36.3624.10
Buy-in+Fee3961386
Amount Won5401720
Net Won144334


So I am still very happy with the results. During these sessions I didn't have as many bubbles and this makes me happy.

I played today's Poker Stars 750k Guaranteed and I didn't manage to survive long as I had 3 mosnter hands. Here they are:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?242777
http://www.pokerhand.org/?242784
http://www.pokerhand.org/?242788

I also had KK and AA once more.

domingo, fevereiro 12, 2006

Too Many!

My total amount in the previous post contains 12 sngs I played today. In those I placed 6/12 and had an ROI of 36%+.

I will update the actual values when I stop playing at the end of the day.

Call Me Bubble Boy!

Since my last post, I have played a lot and the results have been consistent. It doesn't mean I have been able to maintain my ROI at the earlier levels. The important thing is that I have been happy with the way I have been playing. The worst part of all is that I have bubbled too often and that is bringing my ROI down.

Here are the results from Friday and Saturday combined even though Friday I played poorly only 1/6, but Saturday I played better and if it wasn't for all the bubbles I would have had much better results.

Fri/SatTotal
#Tourney42102
ITM1542
ITM%35.7141.18
ROI1.73%21.21
Buy-in+Fee4621122
Amount Won4701360
Net Won8238

Most important I had 12 bubbles and 8 fifth place finishes and that accounts to just about 50% of all my finishes. I have to move some of these bubbles into cashing. It seemed that I lost most of the races, and I got sucked out in a few calls I made with 70/30 hands. I believe that 5 of these 20 out of the money I pushed with worse hands in position and found better hands in the sb or bb.

Even though the drop in ROI, I am still happy with my play.

sexta-feira, fevereiro 10, 2006

Bad plays!

I had been waiting to post because I was trying to find a reason to why I didn’t finish up well. I don’t want to make any excuses. The truth is my overconfidence in the previous 12 got to my head and I pushed a few hands incorrectly. So here I divide last night’s session into the first twelve and the last twelve.

The first twelve, I played really well and reached the money 5/12 times. Most impressive was my in the money results. Four 1st place finishes and one 3rd. My ROI sky rocketed to 50%. It was sweet, but it got to my head.

The last six, I started playing well, but made plays I wasn’t making after the first three levels and I only placed in one out of six. Here are the hands that got me in trouble; I won’t spend much time discussing them.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?240386
This is a tough hand, and I am not sure if I would have played it any differently. This is one of two hands I don’t think I made a mistake.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?240393
This is a hand where I needed to push as my image was tight and my M was below 5. I could have played a bit tighter and waited for a better hand since there was another stack.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?240387
This is a huge mistake this early. Even though I am in position, I don’t think the blinds justify this push as I only get called by hands that are better. The fact that we are seven handed should have also made me fold this hand.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?240388
Oh my! Oh my! I don’t know why I keep making plays like this. Call me retarded as my bluff runs into Quads.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?240389
I don’t mind the push because of my M below 5. However, I realized it was the wrong play because we were still seven handed and my position sucked. I got a nice call but I didn’t win the race.

So here you see why I didn’t play well. Every hand could’ve been played differently, but I am moslty upset about the last three. I shall fix them in today’s sessions.

Last Night Results

There will be more later about what happened, but these were the results:

TodayTotal
#Tourney1848
ITM621
ITM%33.3343.75
ROI21.2134.47
Buy-in+Fee198528
Amount Won240710
Net Won42182

quinta-feira, fevereiro 09, 2006

Estrategia Mecanica para Jogar SNGs – Parte 1

Um conceito que os jogadores iniciantes nao entendem de poker e que voce deve jogar maos que tem expectativa matematica positiva. Claro que eles sao atraidos pelo poker pela TV que mostra na maior parte maos com resultados interessantes, estes com jogadores fazendo blefes milagrosos ou ganhando ao receberem cartas milagrosas. Ao longo prazo essas maos irao levar voce e qualquer outro jogador a ruina.

Depois de ler muito sobre sngs e estrategias, eu desenvolvi a minha propria estrategia. Estou fazendo uma experiencia para ver se a minha estrategia faz sentido matematicamente. O Joao Rodrigo (www.freeroll.com.br) tambem esta fazendo sua propria experiencia. Ele tem seu proprio estilo de jogo mas tem metas semelhantes. Nao conseguirei cobrir tudo sobre sng em um topico so porque acredito que o modo de jogar eh diferente em cada fase.

Hoje vou explicar de como eu estou jogando no inicio dos sngs. Nos outros posts vou explicar a fase com 7 a 5 jogadores, no bubble (4 jogadores) e quando ja estiver no money. Lembre-se que nao estou jogando um jogo onde estou fazendo leituras dos jogadores. Eh um metodo que de uma maneira ou outra tenta usar maos matematicamente melhores das que seus adversarios criando uma vantagem grande. Eu fiz isso porque estou procurando um retorno maximo por hora ao jogar 6 mesas ao mesmo tempo. Vamos la as primeiras dicas.

Como falei os sngs sao ganhos no fim, entao eu explico a importancia de se jogar bem “tight” no inicio e evitar o disperdicio de fichas. Quando os blinds estao mais altos a roubada dos blinds ou um double up te colocara na maioria das vezes no money. Entao quais sao as maos que eu jogo nos primeiros 3 niveis (Blinds 10/15 – 15/30 – 25/50):
Em qualquer posicao eu jogo AA, KK, AK com raises. Se teve raise na minha frente, eu meto all-in sem medo e nao tento inventar. Se ninguem entrou, eu aumento para 150 nos nivel (10/15) e de 5x bb nos outros dois. Se alguem entrou eu uso essa estrategia + o numero de jogadores antes de mim. Caso esteja short stacked por alguma abnormalidade, eu meto all-in de cara.

Maos com QQ, AQs e JJ eu jogo com maior cuidado. Na posicao cedo sem ninguem ter entrado eu sigo a risca acima a nao ser se alguem deu raise. Se alguem deu raise, eu dou call. Prefiro ver o flop e decidir como prosseguir a mao.

Qualquer par acima de 77, eu dou call em qualquer posicao e dou fold para qualquer reraise a nao ser mini raise. No flop eh set ou jogar a mao fora. Mesmo se tenha um overpair na maioria das circunstancias a mao deve ser largada se nao bateu o set.

O resto eu dou fold automatico preflop. O jogo eh bem mecanico, mas eh assim mesmo. Eu nao expliquei o q fazer com AK ou AQ ou AJ desde que sao maos bem complicadas, porque elas dependem de vc flopar algo. Se o meu A ou minha outra carta nao eh o maior par, eu dou check e depois fold em qualquer aposta.

Esta eh minha tecnica nos primeiros tres niveis.

Variance, on my side???

Here I am setting up my failure for the next few days. I just finished playing another 15 sng 11s. I did extremely well and I would have done better had I not lost a few big hands in 2 tourneys and also not made a blunder in the worst bubble play of my life. I also made a call with AQ where I knew the guy had AK; the call came after the flop brought an A and he pushed in front of me. I didn't want to call but I did - http://www.pokerhand.org/?239374

The huge hands that I shouldn't have lost but did were:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?239372

Blinds 25/50. Limper in the button and I raised 3xbb on the bb. AA vs 54. The player limped in the button, and I raised 3xbb with AA. Flop brings 6 4 3. I push and he calls. Spikes a 7 in the river. It happens and I am not upset.

The worst play was in the bubble. I was UTG and had 600 in chips and the bb had 500. Blinds 200/400. I lose my concentration for a second because of a MSN messenger window. When I come back I see 55 dealt to me. Something posessed me to push all-in. After I did it, I realized how much I had fucked up. I should have waited and hoped that the other player lost to me in the next hand.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?239382

In all I placed in 8/15 which is really awesome, putting me at 15/30 itm so far. I don't think I will be able to keep this up, but it has been nice to start this quest on the right foot. Confidence is way up.

Here is todays and the overall breakdown:


TodayTotal
#Tourney1530
ITM815
ROI45.4542.42
Buy-in+Fee165 330
Amount Won240470
Net Won75140



1st 2, 2nd 2 and 3rd 4.

quarta-feira, fevereiro 08, 2006

First 15 out of the way

I played really well my first 15 SNGs. There were 2 tourneys that I made mistakes early, and one where I pushed with JJ and an idiot called his whole stack with AQ. I guess not that bad, but he caught the Q on the turn.

Here is the final days result:

15 tourneys
Buyin+Fee $165.00
Won $230.00
Net $65.00
ROI 39.39%
ITM 46.67%
1st 2
2nd 3
3rd 2

I am happy with the results and the amount of time I spent which was about just below 3 hours. My hourly earning rate is $24.84.

terça-feira, fevereiro 07, 2006

Realistically

So I decided to glance at a few posts at 2+2 to understand how realistically my goals are. Here is a table of ROI depending on the buy-in and 4-tabling:

11s - 25% ROI
20s - 20% ROI
33s - 16% ROI
55s - 13% ROI
109s - 10% ROI
215s - 7% ROI

So realistically I can't keep on moving up only when I am 20% ROI. But I will keep that goal for the 11s and the 22s. I will revisit that number when if I reach both goals. Another really eye opener is the topic on variance and how it proves that I will need to play at least 2000 tournaments to really have an understanding that I am a winning player. Variance sucks and I will try to respect it.

Updates

This weekend the impatient bug hit me again, and I made mistakes too early into some tourneys. I played 3 and lost all of them due to impatience and pushing with hands that normally get me in trouble. Down $109+$44+$44. I know I can play at this level, but I need to be patient and wait for the correct oportunities. Getting chips early seem to make me want to play more hands and I don't think I play well that way. In general, I have been playing $3/6 shorthanded and I like the aggression and the play. I will continue to play that but not as often. I think I will go back to playing SNGs.

Goals

I want to play about 270 tourneys per month. I calculated about 9 per day. This is very doable. I will start with $10, and move up every month I can reach 20% ROI. I should be able to start playing the $20+2 tourneys next month and then it will be a fight to achieve 20% ROI. This is a quest that I trying to complete to determine whether I can play this consistently and achieve good goals. I am planning on my return to Brazil and I am looking for ways to make a decent living from poker. I figured the following:


buy-in10203050100
roi 25%742.514852227.53712.57357.5
roi 20%5941188178229705886
roi 15%445.58911336.52227.54414.5
roi 10%29759489114852943
roi 5%148.5297445.5742.51471.5


I haven't looked at two+two to see what are the expected roi for each buyin but at the $50 level the 10% Roi is still good for someone to live in Brazil. I am certain I will have a resonably good paying job by the standards and with this supplimental income I should be more than happy. Again, I would hope to make at least 2k per month. If I can consistently show that I am winning at the above levels, I should be convinced I can make it as a pro poker player in Brazil.

So I will start tonight. This will also be a test to my discipline as I will not play other games in the meantime.

quinta-feira, fevereiro 02, 2006

Mixing It Up!

Today I got home a bit later than usual after a stressful day at work. I love playing poker and it relaxes me. I know most people get really upset and stressed about it, but mostly I enjoy it and find it rewarding in regards of relieving stress. The past weekend I didn't enjoy playing poker because I was so result oriented and I was forcing many different plays that I normally don't need to do.

I could have easily made the money in the two tournaments I played [$10+1FT(417) and $20+2PP(1567)], but while I showed patience in the FT tournament, I managed to get anxious in the PP tournament. I am talking about raising in the CO with 56s which is okay, but calling a reraise all-in after the button and the small blind called. Pot odds or not, I should have saved one third of my stack. I missed the flop, not that it mattered since the other two players had KK vs JJ. I couldn't win my next race and I was out in 267th out of 1567.

It was a different story in the FullTilt tournament. I was patient waiting for the right oportunities. I kept increasing my chips little by little. I made it to the final table with a short stack, but enough to wait for a serious hand. Two players got knocked out and I continued to wait for the hands. I managed to pick up blinds with good hands but no one would call me down. Finally the next hand played out...

http://www.pokerhand.org/?232311

... and I was out in 7th winning $135. The jumps were significant and I was interested in placing at least top 4. Unfortunetely it's poker and I know I will be there again if I continue to play solid poker.

To control the boredom of one table I started playing $3-6 shorthanded. It's a really good game, and I am learning a lot about aggressiveness and controlling it. I played really well and made about $90 bucks after a 270 hands session. I hope I haven't jinxed myself by making this "happy" post.

quarta-feira, fevereiro 01, 2006

Anxiety Gone!

I think I played much better tonight, although the end wasn't pretty and the results not that great.

I started playing 2 PL Holdem SNGs. I won and took 2nd for a quick $58 profit. I then played the 10.5k Guaranteed at FT and played well, but made a mistake against a guy whose only move was to go all-in. One hand I raise 3.5xbb with AQ from early position and he jams for about half of my chips (1400). The big blind goes all-in with 1.5k+. I decide I am bit and I fold. They both show AQ. Two orbits later, table leader who has been very aggressive limps from the CO. He has been in a lot of pots, so I raise 3.5xbb from the SB with AJo. The all-in guy goes all-in for about the same amount. I normally fold in this situation as I didn't feel committed, but I decided he has a middle pair and wanted to race. He shows 99 and I ask for an A. Flop A J 9, the no more help. Unfortunate. I jam from early position with 88 for about 1.2k (blinds 120/240), and big blind who is the table chip leader calls with TT.

In the $10+1 at PP, I made the money and I played extremely well. I lost several races with AQ and AJ to 22 and 33. That upset me, but my aggression was keeping me afloat. I played really well. But got moved to a table with a lot of chips. My 5k in chips was not good enough to win and I felt pressured to double up (avg 13k). In the cutoff I have As 7s, and I jam. SB wakes up with KK. I manage to flop 2 spades, but no A or spade comes in the next streets and I am out about 143rd.

I played a $5 SNG with 45 people. But my hands, managed to find better hands. 88 vs JT flopped flush and 55 vs 66 flopped set. I had little chips by the time it got to 50/100. I pushed with A8 and found AT. Lost there too.

The worst one was my adventure into the $100 PP tourney. I decided to play as I am not sleepy at all. After 8 hands, I have KK in early position. I raise to 45 and the bb calls. Flop is Jd 9d x. He checks and I bet 50. He mini raises me. I reraise to 300. He thinks and reraises to 500. I jammed and he shows trip Jacks. I am out!

Overall I think I played really well and if the cards had helped a bit I could have managed to go further. I don't think I made any big mistakes.